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“These two influences have been in a tug of war for millennia, and our analysis suggests this pattern will continue.”Īlthough previous global climate models predicted that climate change would reduce rainfall to the south of Southern California, and increase rain to the north, the UCLA study is the first to look in detail at the Los Angeles region and determine the local forecast from those competing influences. “The Los Angeles region resides in between a wetter northern rain regime and a drier southern one,” Hall explained. The researchers found that while average annual precipitation this century will be similar to what they were from 1981 to 2000, very few individual years will be “average”-the model found that the region will continue to swing between wet years and dry years. He collaborated on the new research with UCLA graduate student Neil Berg, who conducted the analysis for the paper David Neelin, a professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and Fengpeng Sun, Scott Capps, Daniel Walton and Baird Langenbrunner, current and former researchers in atmospheric and oceanic sciences at UCLA. Hall, who also is a member of UCLA’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, has been the lead author of reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessing global climate change simulations for the United Nations.
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The new research is a companion to an earlier report by the researchers that found local snowfall would decrease dramatically this century. The report was published online in the Journal of Climate and an overview FAQ is posted at C-CHANGE.LA, a website hosted by the Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability, of which UCLA is a member. Instead, it will fall as rain, which runs off our mountains much more quickly.”
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“Although we don’t expect the total amount of precipitation to change much, we know from a prior snowfall study that warmer temperatures will cause less of that precipitation to fall as snow. “Will there be rain in L.A.’s future? Unquestionably yes,” said Alex Hall, the report’s lead scientist and a professor in UCLA’s department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences.
#Wetter los angeles windows#
The research finds that Southern Californians may face an increased risk for floods and will have smaller windows of time to capture local water because, although the average annual precipitation is expected to remain nearly the same as it has been in recent decades, more of that precipitation will be rain, and less will be snow. A UCLA study published today provides the most detailed scientific projections to date of how climate change will affect rainfall and snowfall in Southern California through the end of the 21st century.